The Exercise of Vital Powers

Prediction: George W Bush won’t veto the bad bills coming out of the Democrat congress congress.

Why do I say this? Because I looked back to 2000-2002 when the Senate was in the hands of the democrats. Bush wants to be liked by the left and the media. He tried to win their favor with such abominations as McCain-Feingold, No Child Left Behind, and the prescription drug benefit.

All the Democrats need to do is pass a few bills “for the children” and our spineless president will sign them. There will be no veto of the minimum wage, no veto of increased NCLB funding/regulation, no veto of increased campaign finance restrictions.

The Era of Big Government isn’t over, and all those who voted Democrat in hope that a split government will hold the line is a fool.

Oh, and if you’re looking for proof on how easy Bush will cave to Democrat demands (either right or wrong) look how long it took before he sacked Rummy.

According to the AP blogger and Georgia Congressman Jack Kingston. is going to run for HRC chair.

I think Kingston has the right idea on how to tap the alternate media, and I agree with what he said yesterday that the GOP will need alternate sources to get their message out when we no longer control the gavel.

However, I worry that Kingston’s past performance in voting with his fellow appropriators and against the Flake amendments might send the wrong message to the base: “we haven’t learned our lesson”.

I’ll support Jack’s run, but only if he acknowledges the role run-away earmarking played in our defeat Tuesday.

HT Peach Pundit

It looks like the House and the Senate have switched control. Allen is behind by about 7k votes and although there will be a recount, it doesn’t look like that will help. Lieberman might just become the most powerful person in the Senate, forcing the Dems to move more to the right. This is probably a bad thing for the GOP’s chances to recapture the Senate, however if we can keep the White House and recapture the house in 2008 we’ll be good.

The mainstream media (and I include Fox News in that category) is labeling this as a referendum on Iraq. I don’t buy it. First off, the president’s party always loses lots of seats in the second midterm election. Second we lost about 6 seats due to our own incompetence and corruption: Foley, Delay, Ney, etc. There were more seats where Republican incumbents retired in largely democratic districts. The deck was stacked against our win from the beginning.

I was just on a blogger call with Jack Kingston (R-GA). He basically reiterated what conservatives & libertarians have been saying all summer: We need to go back to the GOP that gave us the Contract with America. We need to avoid scandal. The class of ‘94 was elected in part because of the House banking scandal. What is interesting is that Kingston doesn’t feel that there is a consensus that we spent too much or too little federal dollars.

The rumors of an RSC slate of leadership candidates is growing. Now is the time for Pence, Flake, Shaddegg and the others to take on the appropriators, take on the win at all costs leaders and push for a more fiscally conservative GOP.

Now that the GOP doesn’t have the majority, we can’t control the flow of debate in the Capitol. We will need to rely on alternative media outlets. Blogs, YouTube and other sources will me much more important to getting our message out. This is good because the GOP has never been able to frame the debate in our favor in the media. By building a grassroots support structure to get our message out while in the minority, we’ll be in a much better position to explain and sell our agenda when we do re-take the Congress.

As for the Democrats……

Speaker-to-be Pelosi is already talking about increases in the minimum wage, and spending more money on Medicare Part-D. Neither of these do I expect “Compassionate Conservative” Bush to veto. It will be interesting to see what the Dems decide to do about Iraq.

The Democrats also have unity issues. There were quite a few conservative democrats who were elected with the support of radical leftist groups.

2006 was a good year for the Republican Party of Georgia. We re-elected our Governor, we elected the first Republican Lt. Governor and Secretary of State. We picked up five seats in the Georgia House. We re-elected all our incumbent state-wide offices.

True we had a few losses. Brent Brown’s loss in the Labor Commissioner’s race was probably the worst. Perry McGuire, Mike Wiggins and Gary Black all fell to the better organized resources of the incumbents. I suspect there will be some finger pointing over that during the next four years.

All the state referendums passed with a 2/3rds majority. The ducks and deer have already vowed to take amendment two to the Supreme Court. This was exactly the reason we needed to elect Perry McGuire and Mike Wiggins.

I still need to go through all the RLC endorsed candidates to see who won and who lost. I know Steve Schultz lost in north Dekalb and Mark Grant lost his bid for the senate seat. There may still be others, but the RLC did pretty good last night.

Chuck Eaton was pushed into a run-off but he is the only one, so he’ll get the full resources of (an exhausted) state party. Once that race is over, the RLC needs to focus on making sure our state Republican Majority doesn’t follow in the footsteps of our national majority and throw it all away in an orgy of pork an corruption.

Republican Study Committee Chair Mike Pence:

“As we examine the results of this election, it is imperative that we listen to the American people and learn the right lessons.

“Some will argue that we lost our majority because of scandals at home and challenges abroad. I say, we did not just lose our majority, we lost our way.

“While the scandals of the 109th Congress harmed our cause, the greatest scandal in Washington, D.C. is runaway federal spending.

“After 1994, we were a majority committed to balanced federal budgets, entitlement reform and advancing the principles of limited government. In recent years, our majority voted to expand the federal government’s role in education, entitlements and pursued spending policies that created record deficits and national debt.

“This was not in the Contract with America and Republican voters said, ‘enough is enough.’

“Our opponents will say that the American people rejected our Republican vision. I say the American people didn’t quit on the Contract with America, we did. And in so doing, we severed the bonds of trust between our party and millions of our most ardent supporters.

If you’re upset about “Speaker Pelosi” then the people to blame are Melman, Hastert, Frist, Delay, and the approprators.

Well, in 34 hours the polls will close in Georgia so I guess I can’t hold off predictions any longer.

National
Nationally, The GOP will retain the Senate and lose the House by a hair. The Dems will have a 1-2 seat majority. As for the Senate, Dick Cheney might be busy the next two years, however I suspect the threshold will be 51-47-2 in favor of the GOP. It will be interesting to see what Lieberman does. It will be more interesting to see what the pundits make of the NetRoots when Lieberman caucuses with the GOP.

This tracks the online betting market at Tradespot.

As for what I want to happen, I think giving the Dems control of the house will make the GOP stronger in 2008. Hastert needs to go. The appropriators need to go. Sometimes the best thing you can do is stand aside and let the other guy screw up.

Georgia
Governor: Sonny Perdue will win without a runoff
Lt. Gov: Casey Cagle will win w/o a runoff
Sec of State: Karen Handel will win w/ a 10pt lead
Attorney Gen: Baker will win w/ a 10pt lead
School Superintendent: Cox will win with a 10pt lead
AgCom: I’ve got no idea on this one. I’m leaning towards a Irvin win.
Insurance: Oxendine has that locked up. 20pt lead for him
Labor Comm.: As much as I want to see Brent win this one, I suspect it will go to Thurman
PSC: Stan Wise and Chuck Eaton win. However there may be a runoff in the Wise race. Libs tend to do well in that race, even if their candidate poses with half naked women.
Supreme Court: Hunstien will win by a slight margin. Wiggins got into this race a bit to late, and the completely unscientific polling I’m getting says Wiggins lack of experience as a judge hurts him.
Congress: Either Burns of Collins will win giving the GOP their only congressional capture this year.

The GOP will maintain their majorities in both the State House and Senate.

David Shafer has his analysis of the ballot questions. He actually cleared some things up and I’ll update my recommendation and ask people move their vote for the veterans to the vote for the widows.

Also, Gwinnett Gazette has a write up.

So does the League of Women Voters.

Peach Pundit also has a thread going.

I didn’t get around to researching this till about 30 minutes before I went to early vote, but here they are:

Constitutional amendment No. 1: To restrict the use of eminent domain. This is the Gen Assembly’s response to the Kelo decision. It isn’t the strongest amendment possible, but it will prevent a lot of abuse. This amendment permits takings in the case of “blight” and give the Gen. Assembly the right to define “blight” by statute. There were other possible ED reform bills that would remove the blight loophole, but they didn’t make it out of the sausage grinder. Vote Yes, as the standard for defining blight now rests with the Gen. Assembly not the developers and bored housewives on the city council.

Constitutional amendment No. 2: To protect the traditions of fishing and hunting. The AJC describes this as “a veiled effort to keep local officials, such as city councils, from enacting their own ordinances regarding hunting and weapons used in hunting within their jurisdictions”. While normally I’m a proponent of local control, I’m also a proponent of the spirit of the 14th Amendment, and our rights enshrined in the 2nd Amendment are lost if the city council can ban possession of firearms. Vote Yes

Constitutional amendment No. 3:To dedicate revenue from special license plates. I’ll let the AJC’s description speak for itself: “This would allow proceeds from new special-issue license plates to go directly to private groups or causes represented on the plates, … [as] approved by the Legislature. State agencies should not be used as fund-raisers for private political purposes”. Vote no.

Referendum A: Tax exemption for farm equipment. I oppose tax exemptions for specific groups. Its that whole equal protection/general welfare thing in the constitution. Vote no.

Referendum B: Tax exemption for veterans groups. In a stunning reversal of all the other referendums, I voted for this one. As a country we screw over our service people all the time. I don’t object to giving them a tax break. Vote Yes.

Referendum C: Tax exemption for charitable institutions. Vote no.

Referendum D: Homestead exemption for senior citizens. Vote no.

Referendum E: Homestead exemption for surviving spouse of peace officer or firefighter. Vote no.

Referendum F: Homestead exemption for a surviving spouse. Vote no.

Gwinnett County also had a referendum on Tax Allocation Districts and a SPLOST, both of which I voted no on. I voted no on the SPLOST because they go towards government schools, and I voted no on the TADs because government shouldn’t take on debt based on the speculation of land value increases.

Here is the AJC’s write up on the ballot questions.

Yesterday morning the GOP Ticket kicked off their Moving Georgia Forward tour at the historic court house in Lawrenceville. I was up and out there at 6am and 32deg to help setup. They (wisely I suspect) didn’t mention the event would be outdoors. I’m glad I decided to dress warmly.

The whole ticket was there (excluding Kathy Cox and Stan Wise). Emory Morsberger, the brains behind the Brain Train, bought breakfast for about 500 people so he got to welcome the crowd. Morsberger got to introduce, Congressman John Linder who introduced Senator Johnny Isakson, who introduced Casey Cagle who introduced Governor Perdue. All of that happened in about 15 minutes, as they all had to load up on the bus to head over to Cumming for the event there.

I had need to be in McDonough so I stopped by the rally down there. Got to meet several of my co-contributors on Jason’s blog. ob shout outs to: Larry, Green Death, Sen. Douglas and Rep Davis. The McDonough event was much warmer but with a slightly smaller crowd.

I finally got a chance to see some of the political ads on TV. Four out of ads during the 11 o’clock news were campaign ads. Tommy Irvin’s attack ad on Gary Black looks like it was made by a bored 40 year old secretary using the cheap clip-art that came with MS-Word. The two crooks sitting in the car worried about Wiggins getting elected was pretty cheesy too.

Interestingly, all of Sonny’s ads (that I saw) were positive. Taylor’s were all negative. American Politic described Sonny’s ads as having “the feel of a Levitra commercial with soft lighting in a kitchen, Sonny’s wife gazing out a window and Sonny’s voice reassuring us everything will be ok.” I think the ad with Mary Perdue was probably the strongest.

Next two days are going to be pretty busy. I’ve got a job interview, AUUG meeting, sign Ninja duties tomorrow and I’ll be live blogging at Sonny’s victory party at the Buckhead Westin. Come on down.

So I had a scary thought reading this blog post on the Club for Growth site yesterday.

What if the markets are rallying because a Democratic win will mean the GOP won’t be able to enact xenophobic immigration policies that will harm economic growth?

What if the market fears the loss of immigrant labor, spending and growth more than it fears rising taxes, increased regulation and more powerful labor interests?

That’s scarier than any of the zombie movies I saw last night.

On the bright side, this might finally trigger the divorce between the social and fiscal conservatives in the GOP.