The Exercise of Vital Powers

Well, in 34 hours the polls will close in Georgia so I guess I can’t hold off predictions any longer.

National
Nationally, The GOP will retain the Senate and lose the House by a hair. The Dems will have a 1-2 seat majority. As for the Senate, Dick Cheney might be busy the next two years, however I suspect the threshold will be 51-47-2 in favor of the GOP. It will be interesting to see what Lieberman does. It will be more interesting to see what the pundits make of the NetRoots when Lieberman caucuses with the GOP.

This tracks the online betting market at Tradespot.

As for what I want to happen, I think giving the Dems control of the house will make the GOP stronger in 2008. Hastert needs to go. The appropriators need to go. Sometimes the best thing you can do is stand aside and let the other guy screw up.

Georgia
Governor: Sonny Perdue will win without a runoff
Lt. Gov: Casey Cagle will win w/o a runoff
Sec of State: Karen Handel will win w/ a 10pt lead
Attorney Gen: Baker will win w/ a 10pt lead
School Superintendent: Cox will win with a 10pt lead
AgCom: I’ve got no idea on this one. I’m leaning towards a Irvin win.
Insurance: Oxendine has that locked up. 20pt lead for him
Labor Comm.: As much as I want to see Brent win this one, I suspect it will go to Thurman
PSC: Stan Wise and Chuck Eaton win. However there may be a runoff in the Wise race. Libs tend to do well in that race, even if their candidate poses with half naked women.
Supreme Court: Hunstien will win by a slight margin. Wiggins got into this race a bit to late, and the completely unscientific polling I’m getting says Wiggins lack of experience as a judge hurts him.
Congress: Either Burns of Collins will win giving the GOP their only congressional capture this year.

The GOP will maintain their majorities in both the State House and Senate.

David Shafer has his analysis of the ballot questions. He actually cleared some things up and I’ll update my recommendation and ask people move their vote for the veterans to the vote for the widows.

Also, Gwinnett Gazette has a write up.

So does the League of Women Voters.

Peach Pundit also has a thread going.

I didn’t get around to researching this till about 30 minutes before I went to early vote, but here they are:

Constitutional amendment No. 1: To restrict the use of eminent domain. This is the Gen Assembly’s response to the Kelo decision. It isn’t the strongest amendment possible, but it will prevent a lot of abuse. This amendment permits takings in the case of “blight” and give the Gen. Assembly the right to define “blight” by statute. There were other possible ED reform bills that would remove the blight loophole, but they didn’t make it out of the sausage grinder. Vote Yes, as the standard for defining blight now rests with the Gen. Assembly not the developers and bored housewives on the city council.

Constitutional amendment No. 2: To protect the traditions of fishing and hunting. The AJC describes this as “a veiled effort to keep local officials, such as city councils, from enacting their own ordinances regarding hunting and weapons used in hunting within their jurisdictions”. While normally I’m a proponent of local control, I’m also a proponent of the spirit of the 14th Amendment, and our rights enshrined in the 2nd Amendment are lost if the city council can ban possession of firearms. Vote Yes

Constitutional amendment No. 3:To dedicate revenue from special license plates. I’ll let the AJC’s description speak for itself: “This would allow proceeds from new special-issue license plates to go directly to private groups or causes represented on the plates, … [as] approved by the Legislature. State agencies should not be used as fund-raisers for private political purposes”. Vote no.

Referendum A: Tax exemption for farm equipment. I oppose tax exemptions for specific groups. Its that whole equal protection/general welfare thing in the constitution. Vote no.

Referendum B: Tax exemption for veterans groups. In a stunning reversal of all the other referendums, I voted for this one. As a country we screw over our service people all the time. I don’t object to giving them a tax break. Vote Yes.

Referendum C: Tax exemption for charitable institutions. Vote no.

Referendum D: Homestead exemption for senior citizens. Vote no.

Referendum E: Homestead exemption for surviving spouse of peace officer or firefighter. Vote no.

Referendum F: Homestead exemption for a surviving spouse. Vote no.

Gwinnett County also had a referendum on Tax Allocation Districts and a SPLOST, both of which I voted no on. I voted no on the SPLOST because they go towards government schools, and I voted no on the TADs because government shouldn’t take on debt based on the speculation of land value increases.

Here is the AJC’s write up on the ballot questions.

Yesterday morning the GOP Ticket kicked off their Moving Georgia Forward tour at the historic court house in Lawrenceville. I was up and out there at 6am and 32deg to help setup. They (wisely I suspect) didn’t mention the event would be outdoors. I’m glad I decided to dress warmly.

The whole ticket was there (excluding Kathy Cox and Stan Wise). Emory Morsberger, the brains behind the Brain Train, bought breakfast for about 500 people so he got to welcome the crowd. Morsberger got to introduce, Congressman John Linder who introduced Senator Johnny Isakson, who introduced Casey Cagle who introduced Governor Perdue. All of that happened in about 15 minutes, as they all had to load up on the bus to head over to Cumming for the event there.

I had need to be in McDonough so I stopped by the rally down there. Got to meet several of my co-contributors on Jason’s blog. ob shout outs to: Larry, Green Death, Sen. Douglas and Rep Davis. The McDonough event was much warmer but with a slightly smaller crowd.

I finally got a chance to see some of the political ads on TV. Four out of ads during the 11 o’clock news were campaign ads. Tommy Irvin’s attack ad on Gary Black looks like it was made by a bored 40 year old secretary using the cheap clip-art that came with MS-Word. The two crooks sitting in the car worried about Wiggins getting elected was pretty cheesy too.

Interestingly, all of Sonny’s ads (that I saw) were positive. Taylor’s were all negative. American Politic described Sonny’s ads as having “the feel of a Levitra commercial with soft lighting in a kitchen, Sonny’s wife gazing out a window and Sonny’s voice reassuring us everything will be ok.” I think the ad with Mary Perdue was probably the strongest.

Next two days are going to be pretty busy. I’ve got a job interview, AUUG meeting, sign Ninja duties tomorrow and I’ll be live blogging at Sonny’s victory party at the Buckhead Westin. Come on down.

So I had a scary thought reading this blog post on the Club for Growth site yesterday.

What if the markets are rallying because a Democratic win will mean the GOP won’t be able to enact xenophobic immigration policies that will harm economic growth?

What if the market fears the loss of immigrant labor, spending and growth more than it fears rising taxes, increased regulation and more powerful labor interests?

That’s scarier than any of the zombie movies I saw last night.

On the bright side, this might finally trigger the divorce between the social and fiscal conservatives in the GOP.

Governor: Sonny Perdue. Most certainly the greatest Republican Governor in the past 100 years. Seriously, he hasn’t achieved all I’d like him to have achieved, but he is better than either alternative.

Lt. Governor: Casey Cagle. I met Casey several times working on his primary campaign and he is an knowledgeable and friendly person. He has strong conservative values (which can be both good and bad) and will live by them while in office. Don’t forget it was Casey who stood up to the current Governor in 2003 when he wanted to raise taxes.

Sec of State: Karen Handel. Her experience in running Fulton county means she has the experience to run the SoS office. She is a strong supporter of voter verified paper trails.

Attorney General: Perry McGuire.

State School Superintendent: This one I’m still undecided on. David Chastian has run a really good campaign for a Libertarian. I like his ideas on making this position an appointed vs elected office. However, Kathy Cox has gotten a lot better than she was back in the days of “Biological Changes over Time”.

Commissioner of Insurance: Oxendine for no other reason than to keep Jason in a job.

Commissioner of Agriculture: Gary Black. No one should be in the same office for 40 years. My math might be wrong by Irvin has been AgCom longer than Moses was wandering the desert.

Commissioner of Labor: Brent Brown. Brent’s plans for putting more VoTech classes in government schools is exactly the kind of proactive approach needed in the 21st Century.

Public Service Commissioners: I like Chuck Eaton. Don’t know much about Stan Wise. Will probably vote for both.

Justices, Supreme Court: Mike Wiggins. I’ve been disappointed with the homophobic nature of his campaign, but I want someone on the bench who isn’t in the pocket of the trial lawyers.

U.S. Representative:John Linder. Three words: FairTax and Earmark reform.

Georgia State Senate: David Shafer. As close to a libertarian as you’ll find in the General Assembly.

Georgia House of Representatives: Brooks Coleman, as I believe he is running unopposed.

I’m mean seriously. How did he get John Kerry to say those things? Brilliant.