Election Prediction Postmortem
On November 1st I wrote:
Kerry will win by an electoral and popular landslide (10% or more). He will claim a mandate. Democratic senatorial candidates will follow Kerry’s coat-tails to taking control of the Senate. The House will have slim Republican majority. There will be lawsuits, probably in Florida and Colorado, but they will not be big media stories nor will they really affect the outcome.
How will this come about:
1) All the polls are very tied. However polls don’t factor in cell phone only users. Most cell phone only users are in the 18-30 range. Most of them will be first time voters registered by MoveOn and Dean organizations. They will vote for Kerry.
2) The Hate-Bush factor is much stronger than the Hate-Kerry/Support-Bush factor. I’ve run into a lot of people who have never been interested in politics who are getting involved to defeat Bush. Look at my friends list, I’ve got a lot of conservative/libertarian friends who can find no reason to support Bush.
3) Lines at the polls are expected to be long and early voting wait times have been up to 4 hours. This helps Kerry because the hate-Bush motivation is stronger than the pro-Bush factor. These wait time also mean there are a lot more voters than expected. Strong voter turnout is often due to dissatisfaction with the current incumbent.
Ok where did I go wrong:
On point 1. The cell phone generation didn’t come out to the polls. I’d like to think it was because the people of Iowa selected an elitist frankophile over someone who had a true popular gen-x following. Even I sent money to the Dean campaign figuring he was the more libertarian of the two.
On point #3. Lines were not long in Gwinnett. While most reports of long lines came from the early voters, the long lines that occurred on election day tended to occur (at least in GA) in areas where the Democrats control the local government. It is my belief that most Democrats can’t govern their way out of a paper bag, so the fact that the lines occurred in Democrat controlled areas is not surprising. And at least in GA, the democrats can’t blame the evil Republicans because the Secretary of State that oversees elections is a Democrat. Kerry was defeated by his own partisan’s incompetence. Oh the Irony!
I’m not sure I buy the whole “values” reason for the Bush victory. First the exit pollsters split Iraq from the War on Terror in the questioning. This shows a typical liberal bias. Liberals see Iraq as being part of the Bush/Haliburton conspiracy, where conservative see Iraq as an integral part of the WoT. Sure Moral Values was the single highest reason given for bush supporters, but if Iraq and WoT are combined - it tops 50%. Bush managed to come off as better on defending the US than Kerry did. America, Fuck Yeah!
I think a real interesting study would be to take red/blue counties and see what nielson shows that those people watch. I wonder if there is a direct correlation between red statism and certain TV shows vs Blue Statism and other shows. Does “OC” or “Sienfeld” garner the same ratings in NYC as it does in Des Moines?
I still hold with my prediction the Dems will take back the congress soon. The longer we go without a terror attack the less the WoT will factor into electoral thinking. If they learn from the GOP and develop a contract with America that calls for honest government (term limits, balanced budget, etc) they could really sweep the house.
Finally the Dems need to realize that the only Dem presidents since JFK have come from the South. Hillary or Dean will not help them. Edwards has a shot. Perhaps if they spend enough time in the political wilderness they will learn that the best way to help the poor is to get government out of the lives of Americans. But I’m not gonna hold my breath.
